before I begin keep in mind that I'm referring to just the web not the internet as a whole.
In my opinion the web is just a fad. If I remember correctly it was around 1992-1993 that the whole "information super highway" hype began . Before that e-mail , news groups , ftp etc. had been around for a long time, but the www was still new. It was primarily the new graphical browsers that were making it grow and get popular.
In theory at least as a research tool the web is fantastic and seemingly limitless. You can find information on just about anything, no matter how obscure , strange or perverse. Again sounds great doesn't it?
IMO it was until the advertising took over. Now on near every site you go to several pop up windows will appear. Legitimate sites are now using the method where you close one pop-up windows and 6 more appear.
With free website providers being "a dime a dozen" and with WYSIWYG editors being everywhere, every tom dick and harry can now make a web page without any knowledge of html what so ever . As a result now when doing research you know come across conflicting information all of the time.
Search engines are now near useless because as I'm sure most people have seen when you do a search on near anything you get hits that are not even close that make up 80% of your results. (this is a generalization , it's not always this bad, but it does happen)
Trying to find various message boards (like this one) for talking about whatever topic your in the mood to talk about often results in boards full of spam , flooders and trolls. The attitude of many of these boards used to be great and people were co-operative and got along. Now their hostile and argue over even minor things (this is even starting to happen here).
What I predict will eventually happen to the web is one of the following (or a mix of all of them)
1) People will tire of it and stop using it because of the reasons I have listed (or simple they got sick of it)
2) The aforementioned spammers and trolls etc. in combination with all the conflicting information you'll find when try to do research will make it virtually useless which will drive people away.
Keep in mind I'm not saying the internet is going to "go away" . But what I think will happen is that the internet as we know it is just a fad and will soon lose it's popularity and eventually when high speed connections are common and available 'everywhere' need types of streaming media etc. will help to make it popular again.
Comments? Agree? Disagree?
Interesting points. But I dont think the web is going to go away for a long long time. While it is true that it has problems I think it will smooth out over time.
In time spamming and offensive ad's will become a thing of the past. The reason simply is that people using those techniques will realise they just dont work and give up and move on.
I do remember the internet before it was popular. I mourn the loss of BBS (at least, there was a time when they were more popular than today). I agree with you, that it is a fad. When everything has to be a "_____.com" in order to sell, it is a fad. (Even though there are many other domain suffixes to choose from now.) I have seen a lot of good sites that have begun to use the pop-up window advertising, and it makes me sick. America Online is one of the main culprits, with aggressive advertising all over their service and sites. (I tried AOL at version 1.5, and didn't like it then!) As for your predictions, number 2 has already become a sad reality. Most search engines are a joke! And the information that they lead you to are questionable. So I do agree with you, and maybe there will be a fall-off of WWW use. However, I will not negate the positives of the WWW. It can be used for good research. Sites like http://www.nasa.gov are well done and have good information as well, and is not littered with ads. http://www.britanica.com seems to be a good site, but a pop-up window can be expected. Then there is that wonderful http://nitcentral.com place...
Nitcentral.com? Where's that?
One really annoying thing is domain name squatters. These people will buy a domain name or many domain names simply for the purpose of selling it once someone wants it. But they will also do it hopeing that someone will go to it thinking their getting content relevant to it's name only to be redirected to a porn site etc.
The WWW is still a very valuable resource, and
you would be amazed at what you find on there.
(hundreds of experimental 3d engines, lightning
forums, Blogs of all kinds, etc....)
No, the internet isn't going away, and people
don't want to return to the bad old days of
$5.25/hr $100 sign up online services.
I don't see how the Web can be a fad, given how valuable a communication and information resource it is.
-Pop up adds are not that ubiquitous in the sites I visit. The only site I visit regularly that I can think of that has them is Snopes.
-Conflicting information is not specific to the Web. It has always been that way when it comes to research, and is why doing research is both so valuable, and such arduous work.
-Search engines are not useless to me. I use them, and they work.
-Spam, and trolls are the minority when it comes to message board sites. The two I frequent are this one and Peter David's site, and trolls are not that bad.
Exactly the opposite of a fad, I think. In fact, it will become almost a requirement to be connected constantly, in the future, much like everyone seems to need a cell phone nowadays.
Personally, I use my cell as little as possible. I like the idea of not being connected all the time.
The last few weeks have been a good example -- just how much do you actually need to know about Anna Nicole Smith?