This Letter from Union City, NJ mayor Brian Stack appeared in the Jan 29, 2006 Union City Reporter.

I had not heard of this incident anywhere else in the media.

I guess the country needs some standard to judge when a refugee has made it to the U.S. or not, but the one described in the letter seems ridiculous.

The 79 yr. old dictator, Fidel Castro is in the hospital for bleeding intestinal problems, leaving his brother Raul in "temporary command" of the island. Fidel has outlived 10 American Presidents.

If Fidel, kicks the bucket....watch out!

PREDICTIONS: (after Fidel's death)

Raul will change the government to a Democracy and re-open diplomatic relations with America, thereby re-opening trade & commerce & ending the embargo.

If he does not, he will certainly be assassinated by an irate Cuban (or Cubans) and a Democratic revolution will begin on Cuba.

(Perhaps it's more "wishful thinking" than "predictions")

This indicates that he may institute some market-oriented reforms, with some speculating that he favors some version of the current Chinese political model, but democracy? I'm not aware of any evidence that he has any inclinations toward that.

what are the possibilities that Castro may be put out during surgery? Where is he getting his surgery anyway?

On a lighter side... Fidel Castro is a fan of those hidden 47's. According to CNN, this is the first time in 47 years he's ceded power to anyone...

Seeing as how most of you are Americans and hence are unlikely to have been to Cuba, I thought I might add something here.

The regime is very well entrenched, which is not to say that things will not change, but I really don't think Fidel's death will represent a revolution in itself (whether from above or below). It will be a turning point, yes, but much as he has dominated Cuban politics for decades, the major symbol of the Revolution and the Communist government is Che Guevara, not Castro. Additionally, local groups called "Committees for the Defence of the Revolution" exist which encourage citizens to report "suspicious behaviour" to authorities. It's not a totalitarian state by any means, but it's not what you'd call open either.

We were lucky enough to be able to talk to some Cubans about their views on conditions in the country (this was during a vacation in February). The overall sentiment was a sort of frustration; Cuba is a poor country and Cubans know it and, well, want more. One of the major growing problems would seem to be the effect of the lucrative tourist industry. While it certainly brings in a lot of necessary foreign exchange, it's also fostering some pretty enormous inequalities. The monthly wage for most Cubans is about $10 - at our resort, we tipped servers at meals and the maid who attended to our room the equivalent of a dollar for each meal and each day, respectively. We could reasonably assume that people working at the resort could be making at least the monthly wage in tips per day. I expect that this sort of inequality will become increasingly problematic.

Castro has experimented with market reforms before; the real obstacle is the embargo. I'd expect the return of some perestroika before long, but it remains to be seen how much glasnost will occur. Cuba already feels pretty open (we visited Havana and drove around the countryside and smaller cities a bit). I suppose what it needs is to become as relaxed as it seems on first glance.

The Chinese model (such as it is) does indeed seem to be in Cuba's future - it's already reflected in the pattern of inequality and in current campaigns against official corruption. Unfortunately, China is probably not a long-term solution to emulate, though I don't expect that Cuba will ever be subject to the same degree of instability as China.

I guess I was thinking that if Castro wasn't in power or died, the change would come, not by the government issuing reforms, but by the exiles in Florida. That is, another revolution...

They realllllly don't like the exiles in the official propaganda, and I expect that most Cubans are not too keen on an exile-initiated revolution either.

I don't see what the exiles could do. It's not like they have any power.

they have power in Florida...

They are also part of what's kept Cuba running all these years. They send US money to relatives in Cuba to scrape by the the money is put into Cuba's economy. Without them the whole government/economy might have colapsed already, but how does anyone with a problem with Castro stop sending money to brothers/sisters and parents no matter what the political reality of the situation?

Of course, Cuba is the only communist country that has a U.S. base in it, Guantanamo.

The least was signed around the beginning of the 20th Century, long before Castro was even born, and, as far as the U.S. is concerned, still good.

Apparently, when he took over, Castro told the U.S. to get out, to which the U.S. replied "Make us." Of course, Castro couldn't, not without starting a war with the U.S. (which he'd lose), so he had to live with it.

I visited Cuba in 2018. The people were wonderful and friendly. I had as little to do with the government as possible.

Though I think the embargo is ridiculous. I mean, we do a cr@pton of business with the PRC.

President Obama was making moves to end it (he even paid a visit to Cuba).

Unfortunately, the Orange Blunder undid all that.