Ok, I'm goign to throw in my two-cents worth on this topic. I'm going to list whatever category I think of, and next to it I will put the titles of two movies I think have the best shot.

Best Picture: The Two Towers, Gangs of New York

Best Director: See above.

Best Actor: Robin Williams for One Hour Photo, Adam Sandler for Punch-Drunk Love (hey, I'm just as shocked as you!)

Supporting Actor: Nicky Katt for Full Frontal (I know, not a chance in hell), Andy Serkis for The Two Towers

Best Animated Flick: Treasure Planet and Lilo & Stitch are probably shoe-ins even though I haven't seen either of them.

Bets Song: Lose Yourself by Eminem from 8 Mile. Not only a good song with weight behind but probably the white rapper's best song PERIOD. Not having heard much in the way of original music in movies this year (not even from the films I liked!), I figure it'll come down to this, and Hero from Spider-Man.

Best Animated Short: Trooper Clerks (I'm kidding ;) )

Best Visual Effects: Spider-Man, Attack of the Clones, The Two Towers (first ever three way tie in Oscar history! )

Best Supporting Actress: Reneew Zelwegger for White Oleander (having read the book before I saw the movie, I must saw that Zelwegger is pretty much the only one who did her character justice. Pfeiffer was just too obviously evil and seemed to be emulating Hannibal lecter, when the character of Ingrid Rasmussen is far more, um, subtle than thatP

Best Picture: The Two Towers, Gangs of New York

Odd that you mention that in the same breath. Can't think why.

Best Animated Flick: Treasure Planet and Lilo & Stitch are probably shoe-ins even though I haven't seen either of them.

Treasure Planet is unlikely and I think that Spirited Away is clearly the best animated film of the year. It'll be a crime if it doesn't win.

Here are some of my guesses...

Best Picture: The Hours

Best Actor: Jack Nicholson (again!) for About Schmidt.

Best Actress: Nicole Kidman (finally!) for The Hours.

Best Supporting Actress: Meryl Streep for Adaptation (riding on her performance in The Hours)

Best Director: Martin Scorcese (too long without winning one) for Gangs of New York.

Best Adapted Screenplay: The Hours.

Best Original Screenplay: Adaptation.

Best Visual Effects: The Two Towers (sorry, five seconds of kick-ass Yoda can't hold a candle to Gollum, who is actually integrated in the film rather than just painted on).

Best Score: John Williams for Catch Me If You Can (though I think James Newton Howard has a shot for his Signs score... however, John did three scores this year).

Wouldn't it be great if the Two Towers were to win, but realistically speaking, does anyone really think is has even a tiny chance. I wouldn't be at all surprised if it wasn't even nominated - the Oscars are so political.

I don't mean to sound cynical. I love the Oscars. Oscar parties are my speciality and having to stay up all night only adds to the charm. But I have to say, having just watched the Golden Globes telecast last night, I definately see Matrin Scorsase winning best director. The Academy have taken alot of slack because he has never won, and I'd say that this will probobly be his year - complete with a cheesy standing ovation that they always seem to love.

For some reason I don't think Gangs of New York will win best film though. I'd say it will go to one of those worthy dramas that seem to win every year. Most of the films that will be nominated - About Schmidt, The Hours et al., haven't been released in Ireland yet, and I haven't seen Gangs of New York, so I can't really give my preferences one way or the other. I would imagine that the academy will largely ignore Chicago, despite it's sucess at the Golden Globes - much like it ignored Moulin Rouge last year. Like the latter film, it will probobly get a few nominations - best actress and even perhaps best film, but I would say it has about as much of a chance of winning as, say, The Two Towers.

Which brings me back to my original point. I would love The Lord of the Rings to be vindicated for the crime of being completely robbed last year. But I just don't think it will happen. Even Andy Serksis seems unlikely (pity) as he wasn't even nominated for a Golden Globe. If anything, I think the best chance Peter Jackson has is to save his free Tuxedo rental token till next year, when surely, barring a Steven Spielberg film about the Holocaust, The Return of the King, and if there's any justice in the world, Peter Jackson himself, will be a shoe in (since this would be the Academy's subtle way of awarding the Trilogy).

Interesting ceremony. Steve Martin threw in a lot of material, some dumb, some dazzling. He's a great host, though, having the ability to turn what would be off-putting material into sort of a "nudge-nudge" joke.

I never saw "The Pianist" and I disapprove of Roman Polanski winning, but Adrien Brody seemed nice, and hey, everyone else HAD Oscars (for the record, I would have picked Day-Lewis). Nicole Kidman? Never saw "The Hours," but since I'm growing sick of Renee Zellweger, then, fine. Chicago I was neutral on; I think it probably won for what it should have won (EXCEPT it did rob Gangs of New York in some technical categories). Chris Cooper an excellent choice for "Adaptation" (what a fantastic job). Glad to see the Academy didn't forget old pro Conrad Hall for his beautiful cinematography on "Road to Perdition."

Anti-war stuff? I thought Steve Martin's barbs kept everyone at ease, Cooper had a nicely emotional moment where he wished for peace (that seemed real, not a hackneyed scripted moment), although some of the presenters seemed to sort of "hijack" the moment. I was disappointed in Moore. I knew he was going to say something anti-war, but (a). why did it have to be so partisan?, (b). why did it have to be so inane? Moore's capable of so much better and he deserved the boos; next time, Mike, take a cue from Adrien Brody.

Mike: Deserved the boos? Oh yeah, he deserved to be heckled by five loud people. How would you feel Mike?

BTW, can I just say I'm glad Eminem won? The other four songs (even the U2 one, and I love U2) were broing as heck!

Brian, when you say the partisan pap that Michael Moore said (and contrary to what Moore said, it sounded like a LOT more than "five loud people"), you deserve to be booed.

Adrien Brody, Chris Cooper, even Colin Farrell, that's class.

But Moore deserved what he got at the Oscars. I'm a fan of him; he had the chance to be profound, to be moving, I'd even tolerate some "Let's have peace, not war." But to go out there and make a butthead of yourself by shouting partisan ramblings was a real letdown. Shame on Bush? No, shame on you, Michael Moore.

In the words of Paddy Chayevsky, "I'm sick and tired of people exploiting the Academy Awards for the perpetration of their own political propaganda." Amen, Paddy.

I liked the Paul Simon song.

Exactly, Mike. I didn't see them...but I read Adrian Brody's speech and my eyes filled with tears; I read Michael Moore's and I just winced.

(Loved Steve Martin's comment about the Teamsters helping Moore into the 'trunk of the limo' afterwards, too. I can just hear him tossing that off - and the audience exploding in relieved laughter.)

BTW, for those that didn't catch the Big Shew live and in person, herewith the almost-as-much-fun-as-being-there MSN Entertainment review of the Best and Worst moments.

Some humor to add: http://www.fametracker.com/galaxy_of_fame/2003_03_24.shtml (note: link is satirical, not actual quotes)

I especially like the end of the Adrian Brody piece.

"Finally, on a night when so many full-of-•••• winners and presenters did such a ham-handed or insincere job of advancing their political positions, I ended by simply and eloquently pleading for peace, demonstrating how best to do so with grace and conviction. Perhaps if I'd been able to lead with my example earlier in the evening, Michael Moore wouldn't have made such a colossal ass out of himself. Actually, there's probably nothing any mortal human being could have done to prevent that."

I feel John Williams was ripped off. I feel his music is FAR SUPERIOR to anything anyone else can write.

OK, now that I've actually SEEN Moore's speech, I have to admit that Mike and Luigi have a point about how it was mishandled. I would've likely said the same thing (I absolutely LOVED that line about the Pope and the Dixie Chicks ), however, I think the yelling adn the pointing was a HUGE mistake. Dubya does a lot of that pointing around krap too, and it bugs me. Other than the yelling and pointing though, I think it was something that needed to be said by someone with big brass ones. Brody's speech was beautiful of course, and I wouldn't have changed a thing, but soemtimes you have to, to use an ironic turn of phrase, have to pound non-violence into people's heads.

BTW, am I the only one who was just f-ing ecstatic about Spirited Away taking Best Animated Feature?

Spirited Away. Yes, good choice.

"pound non-violence into people's heads"

The only thing Michael Moore pounded into my head was partisan ••••. Did he say "Let's pray for peace?" Did he say "Let's work so that we can eliminate war?" Did he say "I have a dream that violence will be eliminated forever!" No--He said:

Whoa. On behalf of our producers Kathleen Glynn and Michael Donovan from Canada, I'd like to thank the Academy for this. I have invited my fellow documentary nominees on the stage with us, and we would like to — they're here in solidarity with me because we like nonfiction. We like nonfiction and we live in fictitious times. We live in the time where we have fictitious election results that elects a fictitious president. We live in a time where we have a man sending us to war for fictitious reasons. Whether it's the fictition of duct tape or fictition of orange alerts we are against this war, Mr. Bush. Shame on you, Mr. Bush, shame on you. And any time you got the Pope and the Dixie Chicks against you, your time is up. Thank you very much.

Fictitious election results and a fictitious president are the two immensely partisan things that stand out here--which have nothing to do with non-violence and peace. The fictition of orange alerts is also a very bad taste comment, in my opinion, considering the many people killed worldwide by international terrorists. And the Pope and Dixie Chicks? You have an outlet to millions of people and you make some cheap joke about the Pope and Dixie Chicks?

I guess I expected Moore to be as intelligent as his films. Not so.

Other than the yelling and pointing though, I think it was something that needed to be said by someone with big brass ones.

No, it didn't need to be said, that's the point. From the moment he walked offstage Moore was almost universally reviled and derided - and thus dismissed by anyone who matters. He did the anti-war movement no good.

What did need to be said - what would have likely earned Moore a standing ovation to match Brody's - was perhaps something along the lines of 'I hope that this means we've made people think about the society that produced these young people. And I pray that in so doing we've further contributed to the debate about our actions in Iraq, and the alternatives we continue to have to senseless violence of any kind.'

...Applause, music, commercial.

I must say I've been fairly shocked with the way things have gone for Chicago. Is it just me or was the film a little mediocre? It was good, but really, it pales in comparison to the splendor of last years Moulin Rouge. Having said that, I wasn't surprised that it won best picture by the time the oscars came around. It seemed inevitable as it had won every other award under the sun.

What did surprise me were the awards for Adrien Brody, Eminem and Roman Polanski. They were such random choices (I would have bet my house that U2 would win - and I, like Brian, thought that U2s was quite a poor song) that I began to believe that even The Two Towers might have a chance.

I've read some reports that say this was one of the poorest shows in recent years. For what it's worth, I thought it was great - despite the section where we were treated to the display of all the previous Oscar winners (that could be bothered to attend) - at that point of the morning, sleep was looking very attractive - it seemed to go on for about 10 minutes. I think Steve Martin did a great job. I especially liked his comment about thanking Steven Speilberg, because it couldn't hurt.

As for Micharl Moore - yes his comments were OTT, innappropriate in the extreme and deserved to be booed - but my gosh his speech was entertaining. It was moments like that and the shock wins mentioned above (Halle Berry being acosted by Adrien Brody - priceless) that kept me awake all night. It's only a shame that Eminem didn't go to the awards - now that would have been interesting.

By the way, it's nice to see that Colin Farrell can actually string a sentence together without swearing for a change - he was actually quite eloquent, and kudos to him for throwing some Irish into his intro - in case you're wondering, what he said was "Go raibh míle maith agat, agus anois...." which actually means, "Thanks a million, and now....." (and not "I'm f***ing delirah tha' me favorah four f***ing b******s in the world are are going to f***ing sing" as some people may have believed).

You shouldn't be shocked, Sandy. Miramax has taken to vigorous lobbying for the Oscar.

Having seen "Adaptation" on the plane back to the UK, I heartily agree with the Academy's choice of Chris Cooper for the Supporting Actor award. But I personally felt Nicolas Cage was robbed for the Best Actor award - he was magnificent in this film.

John A: I feel John Williams was ripped off. I feel his music is FAR SUPERIOR to anything anyone else can write.

What about, say, Wagner?

Good on you, Eminem my lad, for winning that gong for the Song. On the other hand, with recent critical nods and a more subdued Eminem taking to the stage to collect these awards, is this a sign that Marshall Mathers III is mainstreaming a little too far? (Personally, I think it's one of the least Eminem-like of all his songs - way too sincere and with little bite. But it does rock.) My advice to Mr. the Third: Don't forget who you are. Remember Vanilla Ice, Mr. the Third. Never forget what happened to Vanilla Ice...

And Gollum finally got his Academy Award... well, sort-of.

Actually, come to think of it, not quite.

I loved Cage too, but I think Day-Lewis was the one robbed. C'est la vie, both guys have little statuettes at home, now Mr. Brody does too.